AL West preview part 4
Today I’m going to conclude my AL West previews with a look at the Seattle Mariners. You can find the Angels here, the A’s here, and the Rangers here.
The Seattle Mariners 2009 season was an example of what good pitching and great defense, in my mind the 2 key fundamentals of baseball, can do for you. Seattle went from a rather pedestrian 61 wins in 2008 to a 24 victory improvement in 2009, finishing 3rd in the AL West with an impressive 85-77 record that nestled them 12 games back of LA. The secret? 1st year GM Jack Zduriencik’s insistence on pitching and defense while sacrificing a bit of offensive ability in the process was the driving force behind the team that had the biggest win improvement in 2009.
Who were the bright spots of this novel philosophy? Arguably the greatest find has to be Franklin Gutierrez, the 27 year old center fielder plucked from the Indians in the massive 11 player, 3 team trade that saw the M’s wave goodbye to favourite bullpen arm J.J. Putz. Some would argue that Gutierrez should have won a gold glove last year, but it seemed popularity won over the voters rather than production with the choice of Torii Hunter (Not that there’s anything wrong with Torii, but Gutierrez just had a better season defensively). Gutierrez teamed up with Ichiro in right and Endy Chavez in left to give the Mariners arguably the strongest outfield defense in the game in 2009. Speaking of Ichiro, the Seattle favourite recorded a .352 average and his 9th consecutive 200 hit season. Seattle also got tremendous production out of young second baseman Jose Lopez, who smashed 25 bombs while hitting .272. Russell Branyon had a monster year, and while they turned back the clock by welcoming Ken Griffey Jnr back into the fold, arguably the greatest player in Seattle history couldn’t offset the fact that this team finished last in the AL in runs in 2009.
Additionally, the M’s finished last in OBP, OPS and walks, while ranking 13th in the AL in hits, total bases and batting average. In other words, offense was a problem. Fortunately, pitching was the other successful part of Mr Zduriencik’s great plan. The rotation was spearheaded by an incredible season from Felix Hernandez, who, at just 23 years old, established career highs in Wins (19), Innings pitched (238 2/3), Games started (34) to go along with a career best ERA (2.49). All this earned King Felix a second place finish in the AL Cy Young race behind Royals ace Zack Greinke. The M’s also got production out of Jarrod Washburn, eventually traded away to the Tigers, and Erik Bedard turned in a 2.82 ERA until succumbing to season ending surgery for a torn labrum in his shoulder. Perhaps the biggest surprise though came at closer, with former Giants first rounder David Aardsma finally putting his potential together to nail down a closer role that had been a big question mark. Aardsma converted 38 of 42 save opportunities, and was a key cog in a pen that finished with a 3.83 ERA. The staff as a whole finished with an AL best 3.87 ERA, while allowing the least amount of runs and hits in the junior circuit.
Zduriencik took speedy Chone Figgins away from the Angels on a four year deal, traded with Philadelphia for Cliff Lee and also acquired Milton Bradley, Casey Kotchman, Brandon League and Eric Byrnes among others. So where does the optimism lie for 2010?
Reasons they’ll do well:
Figgins provides the spark plug this offense needed all along. For a team that finished last in OBP in 2009 and struggled to score runs, signing a guy like Figgins is a blessing. His final season with the Angels resulted in a career high in OBP (.395), a figure that only Ichiro (at .386) came within .50 points of. Additionally, Figgins scored 114 runs while pounding out 183 hits and swiping 42 bases. No Mariner even scored 100 runs in 2009, and Ichiro’s 26 steals led the team. So Figgins brings a whole lot to the table. Second year manager Don Wakamatsu can easily slot him in behind Ichiro in the order and the M’s have got a pretty good starting point for their offense. If he can get on base along with Ichiro in front of the heart of the order, then Seattle are destined to score a few more runs than they did in 2009.
Milton Bradley shuts up, stays healthy and just plays. 2009 was a down year for Bradley, who’s been injury plagued throughout his career and has developed a reputation for the things he’s done off the field rather than on it. Still, Zduriencik off-loaded Carlos Silva to the Cubs, and if Bradley can stay healthy, he’ll do well. History shows that, when he’s in the lineup, he’s a productive, patient hitter who will hit for a good average and have a high on base percentage, two elements that the Mariners offense needs. It’ll be interesting to see if the influence of Ken Griffey Jnr can keep Milton’s off field antics at bay.
The starting pitching is even better. Felix Hernandez is now joined by Cliff Lee, giving Seattle a top 2 to match any of the top tandems in the game. Add in the return of Erik Bedard somewhere around June from his torn labrum, and pair them with Aussie Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ian Snell, and this rotation could be some kinda good. Rowland-Smith has shown flashes of potential and he pitched well in his 15 starts in 09, as evidenced by the fact that 8 of his final 11 were quality starts. Snell has long been a bit of an enigma, a guy with a great arm and tons of potential who never could quite figure it out in Pittsburgh. Now 28, Snell will get a chance to prove he’s still got it in a better environment.
Reasons they won’t:
Bradley becomes distraction number one and unsettles the clubhouse. Milton has been known to be a bit of a poison. There’s a reason why he’s on his 8th team in his 11th season. Cubs GM Jim Hendry couldn’t get rid of him fast enough this past offseason, and his willingness to take on Carlos Silva exemplifies that desire. Recently, Milton lashed out at the Cubs, proclaiming that they were the reason he had a bad year in 09. And while the M’s have defined leaders and better personalities in their clubhouse than the Cubs seemed to in 09, if Milton becomes a problem, then look out.
09 pitching doesn’t translate. One beneficiary of Seattle’s great defense last season was the pitching staff, and guys therefore over-performed above their talent levels as a result. Take Jarrod Washburn for instance. He had a 2.64 ERA in 20 starts with the M’s, but posted a 7.33 ERA after his trade to the Tigers. Coincidence? Other guys also took advantage of the great D behind them. Take Sean White for example, and his 2.80 ERA, a product of an incredibly low .226 Batting average on balls in play (BABIP). How much of an effect could this have in 2010? Only time will tell.
They still can’t get the offense to come through. Despite the pickups of Figgins, Casey Kotchman and Bradley, this team still has a huge question mark surrounding its offense. It’s all good to get guys on base, but if you can’t send them home, how can you win consistently year in year out? Last year Branyan filled that role admirably, but he had no support. And now, Griffey is past his prime as a dominant run producer, Bradley is an enigma, Gutierrez doesn’t project to be a middle of the order masher, Kotchman doesn’t really hit that well for power, which pretty much leaves Jose Lopez. Concerned? Me too.
Key questions to answer:
Who will establish themselves at catcher? Now that Kenji Johjima has departed, the M’s are left with a bunch of offensively subpar guys wearing the tools of ignorance. And while that wouldn’t necessarily be a problem on a team that has plenty of offensive punch, for Seattle, it doesn’t really help. Add in the fact that neither Rob Johnson or Adam Moore aren’t exactly the next coming of Johnny Bench from a defensive standpoint, and you’ve got a problem. Yes you can argue that Moore has improved his defensive game and he’s got a lot more offensive upside than Johnson, but we’re not exactly talking about a position of strength for this club. One can only hope that Moore gets then majority of the playing time and comes through. If not, then Zduriencik may be forced to make a move or two.
Is the bullpen deep enough? While they’ve got Aardsma shutting the door in the 9th and Shawn Kelley providing a great 7th/8th inning power arm, who else is there here to call upon? The addition of Brandon League from the Blue Jays brings
in a power arm, and former Nationals closer Chad Cordero could make the team, but it doesn’t look quite as rosy on paper. Now I hope I’m proven wrong. Well, either that or the M’s are banking on their starting staff going 6+ IP every night to shorten the game.
in a power arm, and former Nationals closer Chad Cordero could make the team, but it doesn’t look quite as rosy on paper. Now I hope I’m proven wrong. Well, either that or the M’s are banking on their starting staff going 6+ IP every night to shorten the game.
Whose going to drive in Figgins and Ichiro? This has mainly been addressed in the above section, but seriously, looking at this lineup, did the M’s get that run producer that they sorely lacked in 2009? Not really. While Bradley can be that guy, can he just focus on playing the game? Griffey isn’t that guy anymore. Lopez would be better served as a number 5 type hitter, same for Gutierrez, while Kotchman has never hit more than 14 homers or driven in more than 74 in a season. Then add in the fact that they lost Branyan and his 31 homers, 76 RBI’s and .347 OBP. Watch this space on this one.
Worth keeping an eye on:
Michael Saunders. The young outfielder got the call at the back end of the 09 season after lighting up AAA Tacoma, but while he provided solid defense (notice a theme here?), his bat didn’t come around, as Saunders hit just .221. The Mariners recently assigned him back to AAA to begin the 2010 season, but it shouldn’t be long (Pending the adventures of Milton Bradley) before we see him become a fixture alongside Gutierrez and Ichiro in the Seattle outfield.
2010 projection:
As with all the AL West previews I’ve done, I’d just like to re-iterate the fact that I feel this division is, potentially, wide open. Now, alot of things have to go right for Seattle, Texas and Oakland for that to happen, but still, the key word here is POTENTIAL, something that really couldn’t have been said the past few years with the Angels dominance. From 2004 to 2009, the Angels have failed to win the West only once, that being in 2006, when they finished a meagre 4 games back of Oakland. In other words, for the better part of the last decade, it’s been a one horse race.
The M’s will be solid again defensively and they have arguably one of the best rotations in the game. And while they did well in adding Figgins, for me, there are too many question marks surrounding their offense. Milton Bradley? Casey Kotchman? These guys are good supplemental players, not the pillars of your foundation. Will they produce enough runs to make the defensive/pitching dominance count for more than 85 wins in 2010? It’ll be an interesting season in Seattle for sure.
mlblogswhosyourtiger
